Amid the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.
The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.
He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.
Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
Barely 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.
