An Prediction Market Participant Profited $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on Maduro's Downfall.
A trader profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions.
Market Movement in Forecasts
Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be out of power by the end of January surged in the hours before Donald Trump stated on the weekend that Maduro had been apprehended.
A particular user, which registered on the site recently and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32,537.
The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Probability Spikes Before Public Statement
Platform data shows that traders estimated the likelihood of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.
However the odds had increased to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the first hours of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in betting activity right before the public announcement was made.
"This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," commented an industry expert.
A handful of other platform users also earned large payouts from bets on the same outcome.
Legal Questions Intensifies
Politicians are growing concerned.
Proposed legislation put forward on Monday would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs.
Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency.
Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting space.
An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."
