A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
